Gold and Silver Recap: Are We Peaking Yet? Silver Goes on a Tear

Another Precious Week in the Market

Last week I tried to explain the theory that gold wasn’t actually that high, the dollar was just weak.  So as to stop the hate mail, chair throwing, death threats and broken windows (how did you find my address?) I’d like to point out that this is not a reason for not holding gold.

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In fact, it is one of the three reasons for holding gold. It is still not really that expensive, its just that paper money is getting progressively cheaper – as any trip to the supermarket or the gas pump will confirm.  The reason is that it’s still a minority taste, and if this is a bubble you’re safe to buy until the shoe shine boy is talking about it.  If you can’t find a shoe shine boy look for a project manager – when they start talking about gold coins then maybe it’s time to short gold.  The third reason is the optional one that we’re all doomed.  But we’ve been all doomed for the last forty years, so just concentrate on the first two.

And gold has done OK this week.  Ben Bernanke has talked about more easing and gold went up.  Towards the end of the week it dipped down again.  One of the interesting things is that the idea of currency wars has come into the open, where the large currencies all play beggar thy neighbor.  There has been no evidence of central government selling of gold.

However, gold is relatively subdued compared to silver.  Due to Nelson Bunker Hunt, it will be a long time before we can say “record highs”, but although second best may not sound so great these “30 year highs” are a big deal due to the fact that this is not some mad Texan billionaire with too much oil money.  These are diverse consumers worried about inflation.

Let’s put this in another way, silver has risen by 45.8% in dollar terms from the start of the year.  One thing that has been noticeable with silver this week has been the amount of articles from places like the Motley Fool.  Could be the chance to take a breather?  Silver has been priced weakly compared to gold in the last couple of years, but 9% in a week is looking essentially unsustainable.

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